Прогнозирование, основанное на использовании моделей временных рядов
Для этого построим расчетную таблицу.
|
№ |
Y |
X1 |
X2 |
(X1 - X1c)2 |
(X2 - X2c)2 |
Yp |
(Y - Yc)2 |
(Y - Yp)2 |
|
1 |
178 |
2 |
4 |
81 |
21609 |
225,3771 |
3927,1331 |
2244,5880 |
|
2 |
236,67 |
3 |
9 |
64 |
20164 |
230,1322 |
15,9747 |
42,7433 |
|
3 |
326 |
4 |
16 |
49 |
18225 |
234,3479 |
7281,7478 |
8400,1063 |
|
4 |
303,67 |
5 |
25 |
36 |
15876 |
238,0243 |
3969,3979 |
4309,3554 |
|
5 |
208 |
6 |
36 |
25 |
13225 |
241,1614 |
1067,1226 |
1099,6785 |
|
6 |
166,33 |
7 |
49 |
16 |
10404 |
243,7591 |
5525,9661 |
5995,2732 |
|
7 |
215,33 |
8 |
64 |
9 |
7569 |
245,8176 |
641,9556 |
929,4917 |
|
8 |
247,67 |
9 |
81 |
4 |
4900 |
247,3367 |
49,0442 |
0,1111 |
|
9 |
250,33 |
10 |
100 |
1 |
2601 |
248,3164 |
93,3766 |
4,0546 |
|
10 |
218 |
11 |
121 |
0 |
900 |
248,7568 |
513,7857 |
945,9822 |
|
11 |
236,67 |
12 |
144 |
1 |
49 |
248,6579 |
15,9747 |
143,7101 |
|
12 |
218,33 |
13 |
169 |
4 |
324 |
248,0197 |
498,9345 |
881,4764 |
|
13 |
295,67 |
14 |
196 |
9 |
2025 |
246,8421 |
3025,3474 |
2384,1645 |
|
14 |
295,33 |
15 |
225 |
16 |
5476 |
245,1252 |
2988,0608 |
2520,5235 |
|
15 |
292,33 |
16 |
256 |
25 |
11025 |
242,8689 |
2669,0819 |
2446,3960 |
|
16 |
230,67 |
17 |
289 |
36 |
19044 |
240,0734 |
99,9369 |
88,4234 |
|
17 |
229 |
18 |
324 |
49 |
29929 |
236,7385 |
136,1152 |
59,8839 |
|
18 |
218,67 |
19 |
361 |
64 |
44100 |
232,8642 |
483,8611 |
201,4762 |
|
19 |
206 |
20 |
400 |
81 |
62001 |
228,4507 |
1201,7899 |
504,0322 |
|
Σ |
4572,67 |
209,00 |
2869,00 |
570,0000 |
289446,0000 |
- |
34204,6068 |
33201,4706 |